Somewhere on the wide blue Carribbean, October 2009

Let's start with the normal statistics. Since the last Reunion 12 more Association members have enrolled in the Club, bringing the total since inception to 224. We lost two members to death. And this year we had zero losses for non-payment of dues to the Association. That fact is not as good as it sounds. I sent eight letters to delinquent members during this period and I know three replied with dues-one at the Life Member level. However, due to the prolonged illness of Dennis Davis, I've been unable to establish if the other five came through or not. If they did then I say, "Thank You". If they didn't, then I say, "We'll get you next year!" Anyway we know we netted somewhere between 5 and 10 members and that is good.

At last year's Reunion we made our last blatant and extended appeal for new members. For the past 12 years the Committee emphasis was on recruiting. We feel now is the time to shift the emphasis to posturing the Club and Program for the long run to it's planned termination, and doing that in a smooth, seamless fashion. Of course we will continue to seek and welcome new members to the Club but that will not be our prime concern. To attain this posture we want to accomplish a couple things ASAP. First we want to assure we have correct, updated contact information for all our members and their Designated Contacts. Take a look at the Master Roster in the Hospitality Room and make any changes directly on it. The second thing that must be done is to augment the Committee with new YOUNGER members to assure continuity in expertise until the very end. You should be aware that I have asked for such both in the last Newsletter and on our Website. Whereas no one has come to me slobbering and begging for a job, two very good men have accepted a personal invitation. I was almost ashamed to ask one of them as he already probably does more than anyone else to help our Association. That is Jimbo Kinter, our Webmaster. But as the old saying goes, "If you want something done go to the busiest man." I did that and Jimbo accepted, so he is on board. Jimbo is currently our 14th youngest and has had extensive experience in designing and handling the Oldest page on the website so he will come up to speed quickly.

Our other "volunteer" is even younger and is 5th youngest in the Club. He is a recent New Member of both the Association and the Club. As such he was a bit more reluctant to jump on the ship. He wanted to know more about what he was getting into before he committed. As a result we have been engaged in an extended tutorial. He graduated as valedictorian in his class of one! Pumped at receiving this honor he also has agreed to join the Committee. His name is Don Munro and you may well hear from him as the Chairman of the Committee at some point down the road. I'm not yet satisfied with this transfer to youth. I would like at least one more volunteer from the 72 years old or younger crowd to join up. See me if you are interested and you old, Old Farts need not apply. Personally I would like to relinquish the position as Chair immediately after next year's Reunion. It's not that I am overworked or that I no longer enjoy the job. It's just that this is the time for the younger crowd to assume responsibility for the Club and moving it toward that Last Man Standing. We on the Committee will work on selecting the next Chair within the next year.

One of the big problems in trying to get new people on board the Committee is that I cannot tell them with any degree of certainty how long the job will last. When will we get to that Last Man Standing? If you've been coming to these Reunions every year you may recall that in 2006 I tried to predict a date based on the death statistics of our members to that date. I arrived at the shaky conclusion that it may well be about 2046 when our last Member dies. That is a LONG time and no one wants to commit to anything for that long. Thus I have been trying to come up with a better date. I tried a couple of times to use actuarial tables but quickly got bogged down in detail. Well, knowing my interest in the subject, member Jerry Sacre recently sent me some longevity software that predicts life expectancy based on 34 entering arguments. Quick and easy-just what I'd been after. I think I know the age, gender and race of all of our members so used just those three to run it for our entire active roster of 175 people at that time. I seemed to me that these three arguments must be fairly important and should surely yield a good indication of when the program might end. It predicted that it would end in 2024. That is a SIGNIFACANT difference from the 2046 I estimated in 2006. So I had to conclude that either my original estimate sucked, the software was no good, or that the three entering arguments I used don't carry much weight in predicting longevity. To help determine which the main problem was, I ran it for myself using all 34 arguments. It predicted I would live to be 99. I ran my wife's and it predicted 91. So obviously things like family history and life style play a greater role than age, gender and race. I then assumed that our youngest guy had the same family history as I and that he lives the same lifestyle as I do. In other words, I answered all questions as I did for my calculation but used his present age. That predicted the program would end in 2045-very, very close to my earlier prediction. So now I tell my potential new recruits to dig in for the long haul because somebody is going to live that long!! Good news for we the living but bad news for those serving on the Committee.

On to our VIPs. George Braceland is still our Oldest. We want to congratulate him on attaining his 96th birthday on the 22nd of last month!! He is a perfect example of what good genes and a VERY active lifestyle can do toward assuring longevity. Unfortunately, however, this has not been a good year for George. He was confined to a nursing home for the entire year, but with the best of institutional and private care 24/7. If the strong body and active mind base George brought into the period after his fall over a year ago can help, George will recover to enjoy a much better year ahead. We should all pray for him and wish him nothing but the best!!

At the other end of the spectrum, is Ron Bogard. For the third year in a row he has been our Diaper Dandy. You would have thought he would have outgrown that title by now but I guess he is a little slow. We don't hear much from him any more but I assume he is still working as his plans call for him to retire in 2012. He is a true boat nut so I thought we might see him at this Reunion but I guess not. Maybe after he retires?

Gordon Barnes

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